HFF is pleased to report on MSA Employment for the year ending March 2019. Our research team analyzes trends and data to give readers a better view into the current state of the economy and how employment is being affected. Please note that we have added several new sections to the report to better explain the employment situation.
Dallas and New York were the only MSAs able to create more than 100,000 jobs. The top nine MSAs were able to create more than 50,000 jobs.
Employment in national HFF markets grew by 1.64% in the 12 months ending March 2019, and, having added 1,011,000 jobs during the year, accounted for 40.5% of the nation’s headline growth. The top 10 expanding employment bases below combined to account for approximately 27.7% of the nation’s overall growth in the past year.
Altering our perspective to percentage growth (to level the playing field), we see that Orlando, Phoenix, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco remain in the top 10. Large markets such as New York and Los Angeles now lag given their respective percentage growth rates below 1.31%, the median of the 50 markets below. Orlando and Dallas lead the markets with growth rates above 3%. Employment growth continues to be strong, with approximately 21 markets now expanding at a rate in excess of 1.5%.
Here we can see that employment growth for 40% of the MSAs are accelerating compared with last year, and 18% of the MSAs have growth rates closer to their five-year maximum than their five-year minimum.
Here we look at the difference between the five-year annualized forecasted employment growth and the annualized growth we’ve seen in the past five years. Growth is forecasted to slow substantially for all major MSAs tracked.
Here we can see that the Unemployment Rate is falling year over year for 32 of our 50 MSAs. Note that labor force growth is important in this narrative:
A total of seven MSAs saw their labor force decline in the past year.
Thirty-two of our tracked MSAs have an Unemployment Rate less than the national level, and 36 are below 4%.
Sources: HFF Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Bloomberg, Oxford Economics
Prepared by: National Research Analyst Laura Haltom